Another Significant Flood Risk for Torrance County Monday Evening Through Tuesday Night; Back-to-Back Storm Systems Expected
If you feel like you have heard this warning before—you have. The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has issued another Flood Watch for the Estancia Valley, Central Highlands, and east-central New Mexico, in effect from Monday evening through late Tuesday night (September 29–30, 2026).
This is the second major flood event in less than a week, and this one carries special risks because the ground is already saturated from the previous weekend's rainfall. A near-record to record surge of moisture combined with two merging storm systems will bring a prolonged multi-day period of showers and thunderstorms producing moderate to heavy rainfall Monday evening through Tuesday evening.
The Critical Factor: Saturated Soil:
Combined with already rain-soaked soil, there is a moderate to high risk of flash flooding. Ground that was already saturated from last week's rainfall has little capacity to absorb additional water. This means less rain is needed to trigger rapid runoff and flooding compared to normal conditions. Arroyos that seemed manageable last week may overflow with dangerous speed and force this time.
Areas of Greatest Risk:
Low-lying, poorly drained areas, urban areas and arroyo systems, and burn scars will be most susceptible. Rivers and streams will see rises, potentially reaching flood stage. The Estancia Valley, Central Highlands, and areas along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains are directly in the impact zone.
What You Need to Do:
Do not drive through flooded roadways. Do not park vehicles in arroyos or washes. Have evacuation plans ready. If flooding develops, be prepared to move to higher ground.
For the latest forecast updates and flood safety information, visit the Albuquerque office of the National Weather Service or the National Weather Service Flood Safety Page. Torrance County residents can receive timely alerts by signing up for TextMyGov notifications:
- Text TORRANCE COUNTY to 80946 for general and emergency alerts
- Text TORRANCE FIRE ALERTS to 80946 for information on prescribed burns or active fires in the area
- Text TORRANCE NWS to 80946 for weather-related alerts